Employment and unemployment
The rate of employment is up on the quarter by 0.6 percentage points at 75% and is above estimates from a year ago. According to the latest HMRC data, payrolled employment has also seen a minor increase of 3,000 employees on the quarter.
Meanwhile the early estimates of September’s payrolled employee levels suggest an increase on the year of 113,000 (0.4%) to 30.3 million employees, although levels appear to have decreased by 15,000 employees on the month. These figures are to be treated as provisional estimates and are subject to change or revision when more data is received next month.
The rate of unemployment has continued to decrease in the latest quarter, down by 0.5 percentage points to 4.1%. This is below estimates from a year ago. The UK Claimant Count, covering individuals in receipt of Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit, has however risen on the month and the year to 1.7 million which may indicate slight slackening within the labour market.
It remains important to note that the ONS advised that figures derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) are to be used with additional caution as a result of increased volatility around LFS estimates. The ONS again recommended that LFS data is to be used alongside Pay As You Earn (PAYE), Workforce Jobs (WFJ), Real Time Information estimates (RTI) and Claimant Count data.
Economic inactivity
Economic inactivity has decreased on the previous quarter to 21.8% (down 0.3 percentage points). The chief reasons for this decrease are a fall of 62,000 in people classified as long-term sick and a decrease of 32,000 in those looking after the family home. This could suggest that those in the latter group are feeling the squeeze of the continued higher cost of living and are therefore now looking for, or have returned to, work.
Vacancies
Vacancies fell by 43,000 over the same timeframe and decreased further between July and September, for the 27th consecutive period, by 34,000 to 841,000. However, this remains above pre-pandemic levels.
