The National Living Wage (NLW) – the statutory minimum pay rate for all workers aged 23 and over – was a headline feature of Jeremy Hunt’s speech at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester this afternoon, where the Chancellor of the Exchequer confirmed that it will rise to at least £11 an hour in 2024, whatever the recommendation of the Low Pay Commission (LPC) to government.
The LPC is an independent body that advises the government on the National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage. In arriving at their recommendations, its nine Commissioners, representing employers, workers and independent experts, consider evidence from a range of data sources on pay and employment as well as commissioned research, employer visits and public consultation. The LPC estimates that around 2 million workers are paid up to 5p above the current minimum wage.
The remit of the LPC over the past four years has been to get the NLW to the level of two-thirds of median earnings by 2024, as well as expanding its coverage to all workers aged 21 and over by this date.
The Commission's most recent forecast, issued in March this year, anticipates that the on-course NLW will be between £10.90 and £11.43, with a central estimate of £11.16. As such, Mr Hunt’s commitment today is therefore at the lower end of those predictions. LPC members are set to meet later this month to agree recommended rates for 2024 based on evidence collected over the course of this year.
