All three measures of average weekly earnings growth have shown increases in the three months to November 2024, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), continuing the upturn seen in the previous release. Regular earnings – which exclude bonuses – grew by 5.6% for the whole economy, up from 5.2% in the previous three-month period. Total earnings growth – which includes bonuses – was also 5.6%, and also up from 5.2% in the previous three months.

In real terms – adjusted for CPIH inflation – earnings growth strengthened with real-terms regular pay growth increasing by 2.5% and real-terms total pay growth increasing by 2.4%, both up from 2.3%.

Regular earnings growth in the private sector increased to 6.0% in the current three-month period, up from 5.5% in the three months to October 2024. Three sectors showed regular pay growth at 6.0%. These were finance and business services; wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants; and manufacturing – which had been showing at 5.1%, 5.7%, and 6.0% (no change) respectively. Regular earnings in the construction sector increased by 5.8%, up from 5.2%. The lowest growth rate was again seen within the public sector, where regular earnings growth fell slightly to 4.2%, down from 4.3% the previous month.

Turning to total pay growth, which includes bonuses, this was strongest in construction at 7.3%, up from 6.6% in the previous period. In manufacturing, total average earnings increased by 6.2%, up from 6.1% in the previous three-month period. In finance and business services, growth is showing at 6.1%, up from 5.5% last month. The lowest total earnings growth rate in the private sector was in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants at 5.8%, up from 5.4%. In the public sector, total pay growth was 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous three-month period.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Real-terms earnings growth has strengthened, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). All three measures of average weekly earnings have increased in the three months to October 2024. Regular earnings – which excludes bonuses – grew by 5.2% for the whole economy, up from 4.9% in the previous three-month period. This uptick shows a change in the trend for the regular earnings growth figures, which have been decreasing since August 2023, some 16 months ago, when it showed at 7.9%. Average total earnings growth – which includes bonuses – was 5.2%, up from 4.4% in the previous three months.

In real terms – adjusted for CPIH inflation – earnings growth strengthened with both real-terms regular pay growth and total pay growth increasing by 2.2%, up from 1.9% and 1.5% respectively.

Regular earnings growth in the private sector increased to 5.4% in the current three-month period, up from 4.9%. Looking at the subsectors within the private sector in more detail, manufacturing continues to exhibit the strongest growth in regular pay at 6.0%, down slightly from 6.1%, while regular earnings in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants increased to 5.4%, up from 5.3%. Regular earnings in the construction sector increased by 5.2%, up from 4.4%. Finance and business services regular earnings grew by 5.1%, up from 4.3%. The lowest growth rate was within the public sector, where regular earnings growth fell to 4.3%, down from 4.6% the previous month.

Total pay growth was strongest in construction at 6.6%, up from 5.5% in the previous period. In manufacturing, total average earnings increased by 6.2%, up from 5.9% in the previous three-month period. In finance and business services, growth is showing at 5.5%, up from 4.2% last month. The lowest total earnings growth rate in the private sector was in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants at 5.1%, down from 5.2%. In the public sector, total pay growth was 4.2%, up from 3.3% in the previous three-month period.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

The latest growth in regular earnings, which excludes bonuses, has continued to dip but total earnings growth rose in the three months to September 2024, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Annual growth in average regular earnings was 4.8% for the whole economy, down from 4.9% in the previous three-month period. Regular earnings growth was last lower in the three months to June 2022, when it showed at 4.7%. By contrast, average total earnings growth (which includes bonuses) was 4.3%, up from 3.9% in the previous three months.

In real terms – adjusted for CPIH inflation – earnings growth remains comparatively weak. Real-terms regular pay growth remained at 1.9% while real-terms total pay growth grew to 1.4%, up from 0.9%.

Regular earnings growth in the private sector remains at 4.8% in the previous three-month period. Looking at the subsectors within the private sector in more detail, manufacturing continues to exhibit the strongest average growth in regular pay at 6.0%, while average growth in regular earnings in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants has remained steady at 5.1%. Earnings growth in finance and business services fell to 4.3%, down from 4.5%. This was the lowest growth rate, jointly with the construction sector, which is also showing at 4.3%. Within the public sector, regular earnings growth fell to 4.5%, down from 5.1%.

Total pay growth for the subsectors within the private sector shows the strongest increase in manufacturing at 5.8%, down from 6.2% in the previous period. In construction, total average earnings increased by 5.4%, up from 4.7% in the previous three-month period. In wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants, growth is showing at 4.9%, up from 4.5% last month. The lowest total growth rate was in finance and business services at 4.1%, down from 4.6%.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that both regular earnings and total earnings growth continued to dip in the three months to August 2024. Annual growth in average regular earnings (which excludes bonuses) was 4.9% for the whole economy, down from 5.1% in the previous three-month period. Regular earnings growth was last lower in the three months to June 2022, when it showed at 4.7%. Average total earnings growth (which includes bonuses) was 3.8%, down from 4.1% in the previous three months.

In real terms (adjusted for CPIH inflation) earnings growth remains weak and also slowed. Real-terms regular pay growth stands at 1.9%, down from 2.2% last month, and real-terms total pay growth fell to 0.9%, down from 1.1%.

Regular earnings growth in the private sector is showing at 4.8%, down from 5.0% – marking the continuation of a 12-month downward trend. Looking at the subsectors within the private sector in more detail, manufacturing exhibited the strongest average growth in regular pay at 6.0%, average growth in regular earnings in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants is 5.1% (up from 4.7%), while earnings growth in finance and business services fell to 4.4% from 5.3%.

The lowest growth rate was again in the construction sector, at 4.2%, which strengthened very slightly from 4.1% in the three months to July. In the public sector (excluding financial services), regular pay growth weakened on the previous three-month period (when it stood at 5.7%) and is now 5.1%. 

Annual total pay growth for the subsectors within the private sector shows the strongest increase in manufacturing with growth at 6.2%, slightly down from 6.4% in the previous period. In construction, total average earnings saw growth of 4.7%, up from 3.8% in the previous three-month period. The smallest annual total growth rate was in finance and business services and wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants at 4.5%, both down from 5.2% and 4.7% respectively.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

All three measures of average weekly earnings have dipped in the three months to July 2024, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Annual growth in average regular earnings (which excludes bonuses) was 5.1% for the whole economy, down from 5.4% in the previous three-month period. Growth was last lower than this in the three months to June 2022, when it showed at 4.7%. Average total earnings growth (which includes bonuses) was 4.0%, down from 4.6% in the previous three months. The total growth rate has been affected by the NHS and civil service one-off payments made in June and July 2023. In real terms, annual growth (adjusted for CPIH inflation) has dipped on both measures. Real-terms regular pay growth decreased to 2.2%, down from 2.4% last month, and real-terms total pay growth fell to 1.1%, down from 1.6%.

Regular earnings growth in the private sector is showing at 4.9%, down from 5.3% and continuing a 12-month downward trend. Looking at the subsectors within the private sector in more detail, manufacturing exhibited the strongest average growth in regular earnings at 5.9%, though this was down slightly from the previous three-month average of 6.0%. In finance and business services, average growth in regular earnings is 5.4%, down from 6.1% in the previous three-month period. Earnings growth in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants has also decreased in the latest three-month period, down to 4.7% from 5.0%.

The smallest annual regular growth rate was in the construction sector, at 3.9%, which has again risen in the three months to July and is up from 3.5% in the three months to June. In the public sector, annual average regular earnings growth is down on the previous three-month period (when it stood at 6.0%) and is now 5.7%. Meanwhile, the low total growth rate of 0.7% in the public sector is attributable to last year’s NHS bonuses in June 2023 (as discussed last month) as well as one-off payments made in the Civil Service in July 2023.

The July average total earnings growth estimate is one of the three figures used to determine the following year’s increase in the state pension. This is under an arrangement known as the ‘triple lock’ which uses the highest of three figures including inflation, average earnings and GDP, underpinned by a floor of 2.5%. The latest figure for inflation is 2.2%, the July estimate for the CPI measure of inflation. Average earnings for July stands at 4% and GDP has shown no growth in June 2024. Therefore, it is likely that the state pension will rise by 4% from April 2025. 

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

The latest average weekly earnings figures from the ONS reveal a further slight dip in regular earnings growth (ie earnings excluding bonuses) while total earnings growth appears markedly down, due in great part to one-off bonuses paid to NHS staff a year ago, while no such bonuses were forthcoming this year.

Average earnings growth for the three months to June 2024 showed at 5.4% on the regular earnings measure for the whole economy – it was last lower than this almost two years ago, when it was 5.2% for the period from May to July 2022. Meanwhile total earnings growth fell to 4.5%, compared with 5.7% in the previous three-month period and 8.2% in April to June 2023. Annual growth in real terms, adjusted for CPIH inflation, was 2.4% for regular pay and again somewhat lower for total pay, at 1.6%.

Earnings growth in the private sector is showing at 5.2%, down from 5.6%. Looking at the subsectors within the private sector in more detail, financial services exhibited the strongest average growth in regular earnings at 6.2%, however this was down from the previous three-month average of 6.7%. The smallest annual regular growth rate was in the construction sector, at 3.5%, although this is up on the 3.1% growth rate for March to May. In the public sector, annual average regular earnings growth is down on the previous three-month period (when it stood at 6.4%) but remains relatively strong at 6.0%.  

The ONS attributes much of the decline in total pay growth over this period to the fact that in June 2023, NHS staff on Agenda for Change terms and conditions received two non-consolidated awards as part of the 2022/23 pay agreement: an award worth 2% of pay and a one-off ‘NHS backlog bonus’ worth between £1,250 and £1,600. By contrast the NHS pay awards for 2023/24 and 2024/25 were consolidated and would therefore have much less influence on total earnings growth. As a consequence, total pay growth for the public sector (excluding financial services) for the three months to June 2024 is showing at just 1.8%, compared with 10.8% a year previously. The strongest total pay growth was in manufacturing, at 6.7% (regular pay growth for this subsector for the same period was 6.0%). 

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

There was a slight dip in average weekly earnings on both measures in the three months to May 2024, while real-terms growth held steady. Annual growth in average regular earnings (ie not including bonuses) was 5.7% for the whole economy, down from 6.0% in the previous three-month period. Growth was last lower than this in the three months to August 2022, when it showed at 5.4%. Average total earnings growth (ie including bonuses) was likewise 5.7% (down from 5.9% in the previous three-month period); it was last lower than this – at 5.6% – in the three months to January 2024.

While average earnings growth has dipped slightly on both measures, the ONS nonetheless still considers the current rates of growth to be ‘relatively strong’, which they are in recent historical terms. Meanwhile in real terms, annual growth (adjusted for CPIH inflation) in total pay held steady at 2.2%, and was up slightly, from 2.4% to 2.5%, for regular pay. It was last higher in the summer of 2021, just as inflation was starting to rise. 

Annual average regular earnings growth for the private sector was 5.6% – this is down from 5.9% in the previous period and was last lower than this (at 5.4%) in the three months from April to June 2022. Total earnings growth in the private sector was at a similar level of 5.5% (likewise down from 5.9% in the three months to April).

Earnings growth was stronger in the public sector than in the private sector in the latest period. Annual average regular earnings growth for the public sector (excluding financial services) remains strong, showing at 6.4%, up from 6.3% in the two previous months. Total earnings growth in the public sector was at a similar level (6.3%). This pattern is in keeping with a cycle frequently observed in earnings comparisons between the two sectors, whereby pay in the private sector moves ahead and the public sector eventually catches up, and then stays ahead for a time while private sector growth weakens.

The largest annual growth rate in regular pay was in finance and business services, at 6.7% – although this is down on the previous period’s figure of 6.9%. Manufacturing saw a fall from 6.6% to 6.2% and in wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants annual growth in regular earnings was 5.5%, compared with 5.8% in the three months to April. Once again, the construction sector saw the lowest rate of annual growth in average regular earnings – 3.0%, the same as the previous three-month period. 

A similar sectoral picture is observed for annual total pay growth: this held steady at 7.0% in finance and business services and was down to 1.7% (from 2.2% in the three months to April) in construction.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Annual growth in both regular and total weekly earnings has remained steady for the three months to April. Across the whole economy, annual growth in regular earnings, which excludes bonuses, is still showing at 6.0% while total earnings growth was 5.9%. However, with successive falls in inflation, real-terms earnings growth (where figures are adjusted for inflation, based on the CPIH measure) has risen once again, with regular pay growth increasing by 2.3% and total pay by 1.7%.

Regular pay growth in the private sector has fallen very slightly again this month, from 5.9% to 5.8%, and remains at 6.3% in the public sector (excluding financial services). The finance and business services sector has seen the strongest regular pay growth, at 6.9%, up slightly from 6.8% last month, while regular pay growth in manufacturing is also high, at 6.5%. The lowest growth rate is in construction, at 2.9%, but this is up on the previous month’s rate. 

The strongest growth in total pay, which includes bonus payments, can again be seen in the finance and business services sector, where it is likewise showing at 6.9%; this is partly attributable to the fact that March tends to be the peak bonus month for the sector. Average weekly bonus payments in finance and business services were worth £109 in the three months to April. Meanwhile total pay growth in the construction sector has seen a further decline, to 2.1%, down from 2.3% last month. Meanwhile in manufacturing, total pay growth is showing at 6.5%, the same as for regular pay, and this is up from 6.2% last month. 

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Following a period in which earnings growth had been trending downwards, there has been no change to overall average weekly earnings growth for the three months to March. Across the whole economy, annual growth in regular earnings remains at 6.0% while total earnings growth (the measure that includes variable elements such as bonuses – for which March is a peak month) is still at 5.7%. However, adjusting for inflation (using CPIH) shows an increase in real terms pay growth, with regular pay increasing by 2.0% and total pay by 1.7% – up from 1.9% and 1.6% respectively the previous month. 

Regular pay growth in the private sector is slightly down, from 6.0% to 5.9%, while growth in the public sector has risen from 6.1% to 6.3%. This rate was last lower in the three months to June 2022, when it showed at 5.4%. The largest annual regular growth rates, both 6.8%, were in the manufacturing and financial and business services sectors – this represents no change in the rate in the former sector and a small increase of 0.1 percentage point in the latter. Meanwhile growth is showing at just 2.6% in construction, down from 3.1% the previous month.

March is typically the peak month for bonuses and average growth in total pay, which includes such elements, remains steady at 5.7% despite record total average bonus payouts in March 2024 (up marginally on the values for the previous March). The highest average bonus payments were in the financial and business services sector, while bonuses in both construction and wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants were lower than in March 2023. The highest growth in average total earnings was likewise found in the financial and business services sector, at 6.3% compared with 5.8% last month. Total earnings growth also rose in the public sector (6.2%) and manufacturing (6.0%). By contrast, the construction sector saw a fall from 4.3% for the three months to February to just 2.1% in the latest figures. 

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Earnings growth is trending downwards slowly, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Nonetheless, it remains positive in real terms: against the ONS’ preferred inflation measure of CPIH, total pay rose by 1.6% for the quarter from December 2023 to February 2024 while regular pay rose by 1.9%. In both cases, these figures were last above this level in the quarter from July to September 2021 (when they rose by 3.1% and 2.2% respectively). And earnings growth remains relatively strong in key sectors such as manufacturing and finance and business services. 

Looking at regular pay, which excludes bonuses, annual growth was 6.0% across the whole economy for the period from December 2023 to February 2024, down slightly from 6.1% in the previous three-month period. Regular pay growth in the private sector was at the same level of 6.0%, likewise down from 6.1% the month before. There is some variation in the picture by sector however: growth rates in the public sector (excluding financial services) and manufacturing remain unchanged on the previous three-month period, at 6.0% and 6.9% respectively, although this latter figure indicates comparatively strong growth in the manufacturing sector. Meanwhile regular pay growth in the finance and business services sector is not far behind at 6.8%, up from 6.7% the previous month. In percentage-point terms, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector has seen the greatest change in annual growth rates (a fall from 7.1% last month to 6.4% for the current three-month period) compared with relatively muted changes in all other subsectors.

The figures for total pay present a similar picture of no or little change in most sectors. Across the whole economy, annual growth in average weekly earnings on the total pay measure remains at 5.6%. The figure for the private sector is likewise 5.6%, down from 5.7% for the previous three-month period. Once again, the wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants sector has seen the greatest change in percentage-point terms with the latest rate showing at 5.2% compared with 5.8% for the period from November 2023 to January 2024. And as with regular pay, changes in all other sectors have been relatively muted, with finance and business services, the public sector (excluding financial services) and manufacturing all showing small increases (of 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points) on the previous month, with small falls in the other sectors.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Average weekly earnings across the whole of the economy rose by 6.1% on the regular pay measure in the year to January 2024. This was down marginally from the rate of 6.2% in the year to December 2023. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 5.6% in the year to January, down from 5.8% in the year to December. The growth rate in average earnings is down from the higher levels seen last year, mainly in response to the lower rate of inflation, but remains relatively strong.

The recent easing in inflation means that earnings are growing once again in real terms. In this month’s release the ONS says that in real terms (adjusted for CPIH inflation), total pay rose by 1.4% and regular pay rose by 1.8% in the year to January 2024. These numbers are the same as those for December 2023. CPIH inflation averaged 4.2% in the year to the three months to January 2024.

Current research by IDR shows that recent pay settlements across the economy have centred on 5%. The difference between this figure and that for average earnings growth – which represents the sum total contribution from basic pay and increases in it, plus bonuses (for total pay), overtime, shift pay and other allowances – is sometimes referred to as ‘earnings drift’. This gap re-emerged after the pandemic following a very lengthy period in which there was little difference between basic pay awards and average earnings growth.

The sector with the highest increase in average weekly earnings was wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants where regular earnings, excluding bonuses, grew by 7.2% in the year to January. This was the same increase as in the year to December. Some pay awards in the retail and hospitality sectors are anticipating the increase in the National Minimum Wage of around 10% from 1 April.

The next highest increase was in manufacturing where average earnings grew by 6.8% in the year to January, followed by finance and business services where the growth rate was 6.6%. The sector with the weakest growth rate in earnings was construction, at just 3.3% in the year to January, down from 3.8% in the year to December. Shorter daylight hours in winter can depress earnings in this sector.

Average earnings growth in the whole of the private sector was 6.1% in the year to January, marginally down on 6.2% in the year to December. In the public sector, the rate of growth was 5.9% in the year to January, the same as the revised figure for the year to December. The ONS said that earnings growth in the public sector was not as high as in recent periods but remains strong.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.

Average weekly earnings across the whole of the economy rose by 6.2% on the regular pay measure in the year to December 2023. Total pay, which includes bonuses, rose by 5.8% in the year to December. The rate of growth is easing back in response to the fall in inflation. Earnings growth is down from the high level of around 8% seen in summer 2023, but remains strong in comparison to the pre-pandemic trend.

At its height, the inflation rate ran ahead of growth in average weekly earnings. However, in recent months the rate of growth in average earnings has been ahead of inflation, as the latter has come down. The ONS says that in real terms (adjusted for CPIH inflation) total pay rose by 1.4% and regular pay rose by 1.8% in the year to December.

Average earnings growth in the public sector continues to be lower than that in the private sector. Regular pay in the public sector grew by 5.8% in the year to December while the growth rate in the private sector was 6.2%. The ONS says that public sector pay growth is not as high as in recent periods but remains relatively strong.

In the year to December, the sector with the highest earnings growth was wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants where average earnings grew by 7.2%. The next highest was manufacturing where the rate of growth was 6.9%.

The sector with the highest rate of growth is frequently finance and business services, but in the year to December earnings growth in this highest-paid sector dropped back to 6.7%.

The sector with the weakest growth in average earnings was construction, where the regular pay rate was just 3.8% in the year to December.

Research by IDR show that recent pay settlements across the economy have been around the 5% level, which is consistent with average earnings growth of 6% to 7%. However, average earnings reflect all payments made including bonuses, overtime, shift payments, and location allowances. Most private sector companies have pay review dates in January and April and the level of these awards will give an indication of the level of average earnings growth in future months.

Figures correct at time of writing. The ONS sometimes publishes revisions to its Average Weekly Earnings data series; for the most up-to-date figures see its latest and previous releases on the ONS website.