Economists are divided over the prospects for inflation during the coming period. This is in line with the generalised uncertainty when it comes to the outlook for the economy as a whole. They all predict that the cost of living will rise, but differ when it comes to the likely rate of increase. Continue reading Forecasts: Inflation looks set to rise, but at what speed?
The median pay settlement across the whole economy continues unchanged at 2% in the three months to July 2016, according to the latest monitoring figures from IDR. The median award has been constant for seven consecutive rolling periods, since the three months to January. Continue reading Quarterly analysis: settlements cluster around 2%
The concept of a ‘living wage’ is straightforward but its calculation is much less so. Despite the popularity of the measures promoted by the Living Wage Foundation, the methodologies for setting the rates have until recently received little scrutiny. As an employers’ association with several Living Wage-accredited members and with many others following the rate, we looked into the methodologies and were surprised by what we found. Continue reading A guide to forecasting the ‘living wage’
The level of unemployment across the different countries of the UK is broadly similar at around 5%. What is more striking are the differences between travel-to-work areas within each country. Continue reading Unemployment hot and cold spots
The vote to leave the EU has affected business confidence, prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates ahead of what it predicts to be a sharp slowdown in economic growth. If the Bank is right, this is likely to affect the labour market, but the question is: how and when? Continue reading Where next for the labour market?
Any readers who have not already made a decision on their pay budget for next year – and perhaps many of those who have – need to keep a close watch on inflation. Continue reading Viewpoint: Keep a weather eye on inflation… and equal pay
The all-items Retail Prices Index (RPI) rose to 1.9% in the year to July 2016, from 1.6% in the year to June. The measure is now just 0.1% lower than its last highest point, in November 2014, when it was 2.0%.
The main upward contribution to the latest increase was from motoring expenditure. Petrol prices rose by 0.9p per litre between June and July this year, to stand at 111.9p per litre, compared to a 0.1p increase at the same time last year. Average premiums for car insurance rose this year by more than a year ago. Other upward pressures came from alcohol and food prices. Continue reading Inflation rises again
Earnings growth remains steady, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Average weekly earnings across the whole economy grew by 2.4% in June, up slightly on the rate of growth of 2.3% in May.
In the private sector, average weekly earnings grew by 2.5% in the year to June. This was the same as in the year to May, but above the lower levels seen in the spring. Earnings growth in the public sector was 1.9% in the year to June, the same as in the year to May, but also higher than earlier in the year. Continue reading this free article
Migrants form an important part of the UK labour force. They account for around 16% of all employees and for some occupational groups more than half of employees were born outside of the UK. As the new Government pursues policies to ensure continued economic growth following the EU referendum, it will also be judged against its stated aim of reducing net migration. Achieving both of these objectives could prove challenging, not least for those employers that have come to rely on migrants as an important source of labour. Continue reading this free article
Our latest analysis of pay settlements, for the three months to the end of June 2016, shows the median holding steady at 2%. The interquartile range – where half of all awards sit – has narrowed slightly to between 1% and 2.6% in the latest period, driven by a greater clustering of outcomes in the not-for-profit sector. Continue reading Settlements in brief July 2016: Median holds steady at 2%